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Economic GrowthĮconomic losses are greater as temperatures rise, with middle income countries (Africa, southeast Asia, India, Brazil, Mexico) projected to be affected the most. Risks to human health, including heat-related morbidity and mortality in urban areas, are lower with 1.5☌ of warming than 2☌. Fisheries and aquaculture also experience lower risks if warming stays at 1.5☌. The risks of food shortages are projected to be lower in the Sahel, southern African, Mediterranean and Amazon regions under 1.5 ☌ of warming than they would be at 2☌ of warming. For example, one study cited in the report found that the global annual catch from marine fisheries declined by 1.5 million tonnes under 1.5☌ of warming under 2☌. Loss of fishery productivity at low latitudes, acidification, dead zones and other dangerous conditions are projected to be more pronounced with warming higher than 1.5☌. However, limiting warming to 1.5☌ can stave off many of the impacts that higher temperatures would bring.įor example, coral reefs are projected to decline by 70-90 percent with warming greater than 1.5☌. With an additional half degree of warming, more than 99 percent losses are expected. Ocean ecosystems are already transforming and will change dramatically with just 1.5☌ of warming. or about 21-37 percent of the total permafrost area. If warming is limited to 1.5☌, the extent of thawing permafrost drops to 4.8 million km2. With warming of 2☌, 35-47 percent of the Arctic’s permafrost would thaw by 2100, an area of land that is three-quarters the size of Australia. Under higher temperatures, permafrost is at a much greater risk for melting, which would lead to the release of its stored carbon into the atmosphere. With 1.5☌ of warming, this risk is lowered to 4 percent of Earth’s land area. For example, under 2☌ of warming, 13 percent of the Earth’s land area is projected to witness biome shifts (such as changing from tundra to forest), or transformation. Terrestrial EcosystemsĮcosystems are expected to transform with greater warming. Other factors that lead to losses of species, such as forest fires and the spread of pests and diseases, also decrease if warming stays at 1.5☌. With 1.5☌ of warming, this is reduced by two-thirds for insects, and by half for plants and vertebrates. Species LossĪt 2✬ warming, 18 percent of insects globally, 16 percent of plants and 8 percent of vertebrates are projected to lose more than half of their ranges. Up to 79 million could be exposed under 2☌ of warming.Īlso, if the rate of sea level rise is slower, there can be more opportunities for communities to adapt. With 1.5☌ of warming by 2100, up to 69 million people could be exposed to flooding (assuming no adaptation and current population). The risk of flooding is also greater with a higher temperature rise. With 1.5☌ of warming, sea level rise would be 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) in 2100, compared to levels in 1986-2005. This can lead to more heat being absorbed, impacts to ocean circulation, and have consequence for winter weather in the Northern hemisphere. With 1.5☌, the report finds it is very likely to have one sea-ice-free summer every 100 years at 2☌, the frequency increases to at least one every 10 years. While 1.5☌ can lead to increased runoff and floods in some regions compared to today’s conditions, 2☌ could lead to even more.
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High latitude and mountainous regions, as well as Eastern Asia and Eastern North America, are projected to experience heavier precipitation under 2☌ of warming than under 1.5☌.
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